ARCENFETE (George Boughey), 11-12, official rating 127, blinkers & tongue tie

This will be his first run since moseying over from Ireland. After a fall a year ago in a novice chase at Roscommon his form in his homeland had been rather weedy, and he had suffered a hurdling tumble at Killarney in May to wipe out any slow progress on the road back to complete confidence. With both jumps victories having been over fences (Wexford and Roscommon), there is a gap on his CV in the sphere of hurdling since summer of 2016 when he made a winning jumps debut at Auteuil. The potential to be good handicapper (i.e. well above sellers) remains and first time blinkers and a change of scenery could help him.

BALLYELLIS (Nigel Twiston-Davies), 10-11, or 112

When he went into a seller in August at Market Rasen the observation was that whilst his hurdle results said he was at the upper end of selling class horses, youth and the fact that he is yet to sample chasing made for a significant risk of him changing hands. He was close second that day – Skeaping a length behind on ten pounds worse terms than now - and remained in-house. From there he has won twice in selling company (first time hood in the most recent) but nobody has extricated him from life in the wilds of Gloucestershire. Fear of assault from a Paddington Bear impersonator could be an issue. Said person went to £5,600 to keep him after the first win, but nothing is noted in the results for last time in a bad race, even for a seller.

SKEAPING (Phil Middleton), 10-11, or 112, visor

He runs often and throws in the odd win, although the second part of that was happening when trained by Gordon Elliott and it is not easy to sustain or improve results for a horse when initially acquiring it from that source. He joined the current team after winning a novices’ selling hurdle when having favourable weights at Southwell and in five runs since he has posted three thirds and a fall too early to know where he may have ended up – Bloodaxe notes that in a six horse race that soon scattered, third was very feasible. As referred to earlier, he absolutely has the beating of Ballyellis on a recent encounter but that enemy is in a jolly determined frame of mind than has sometimes been apparent in the past. This horse may be more at home over a bare two miles and is 213F in sellers – well ahead of his par hit rate.

SOME BOY MCCOY (Olly Murphy), 10-11, or 112, cheekpieces

Having only raced six times, he still has the potential to be more than just a sellers type, although clearly those who know him best are less certain about that than the rest of us. The best result so far is a second place in one of those deplorable Lingfield bumpers, but on his first bash over hurdles he lost by only three lengths or so, which is a nice foundation even in a modest Fakenham maiden. After regressing on the second try he went for a wind op and fell next time, at the final hurdle when clinging on for a place. The warm up for this was a sixth at Warwick, in a race when the first pair were rated 122 and 133. A repeat would make him a big threat and more than repetition is viable.

POINT TAKEN (Micky Hammond), 10-7, or 108, cheekpieces

As with Some Boy McCoy, he has six jumps runs but there were five flat spins along the way which include a very tight Dundalk win almost a year ago on his racing debut. The first try as a hurdler was a complete contrast, ending up tailed off. The improvement was steady, both in finishing position and margin of loss, up until he was runner-up in first time cheekpieces by five lengths at Bangor. That stalled on his latest try, but it was up at 2m 5f and on soft ground, so notably different to circumstances that had nearly suited him before. His debut for the yard, on the flat, was ropey too, so perhaps they are still getting to grips with him.

JOYCETICK (Nick Littmoden), 10-5, or 106

One of the busier participants, he has had a dozen flat runs and eleven as a hurdler. In the former he won on debut and is yet to do so again. In the latter he started 3221 in France but has never scaled such heights of success in Britain and somehow has managed to include two falls and a hampered into unseating in the seven subsequent efforts – two when running rather well. It is easy to imagine that this race was picked in search of a normal seller with much dozier oppo than he faces for this race. The undulations of Fakenham often prove problematical for those horses who have become a bit clumsy.
The Plan is to pick a race each day and give it a fairly detailed preview - hopefully picking up a worthwhile punt, but not scrabbling around for one. In reality, the "every jumps day" might prove impractical. For instance, you have been to Plumpton, had a couple of pints, get the train back, go to the pub. There might well be time to go through a race and publish, but no-one wants the unintelligible guff. So The Plan and The Harsh Reality may not always coincide.

The verdict is simple for each horse: The more Axes the better, but lay, or at least avoid, the Stalins. Keep a wary eye on the Mysterons
In order to handle changeable ground, a preference table has been added - the key is:
Y+ = Strong preference      Y = OK      Y? = Probably OK      ?Y = Maybe OK      ? = insufficient evidence
?x = Maybe a problem      x? = probably a problem      x = definite problem      blank = no evidence to judge
18th October, Fakenham 1.55, Sky Sports Racing Conditional Jockeys' Selling Handicap Hurdle (class 5)

Course: Left-handed, sharp, undulating

Distance: 2 miles

Going: Good (Good to Soft places)

Stables in form: Nigel Twiston-Davies

Stables out of form: George Boughey, Micky Hammond

Claiming Jockey Watch: Jack Tudor (Arcenfete) claims 5 lb, 9 wins. Jordan Nailor (Ballyellis) claims 6 lb, 17 wins. Luca Morgan (Skeaping), claims 7 lb, 5 wins. Lewis Stones (Some Boy McCoy) claims 8 lb, 10 wins. Billy Garritty (Point Taken) claims 3 lb, 23 wins .Fergus Gregory (Joycetick) no claim, 40 wins.
HorseGoing DistanceCourse Comments
Arcenfete?YYYYYYY1st time blinkers, new trainer
Some Boy McCoy?YYYYYY1st time cheekpieces, handicap debut
Point Taken??YYYY?
Points of Order
Ballyellis ran over 2m 7f last time and his last two miler was his last loss, but paceless horses do not appreciate Stratford and success over 2m 2.5f there ought to be made to work going up and down around Fakenham at today's distance. However Skeaping is a very realistic threat and blinkers could help Arcenfete plenty. However, the scope of Some Boy McCoy is hypnotically attractive. Take 4/1 or more.
Working... Please wait