JANUARY 2012 HORSES

8 year old bay gelding     (Presenting – West Hill Rose)     08088/704611/6621P4-232

So far he has been a consistent and reliable in his adherence to the pattern identified, but Copper’s Gold as a selection has an element of risk, as it is based on frequency of racecourse appearance, which is vulnerable to a change of training policy. One of the best clichés around, due to being very true, is “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” but sometimes the temptation to tinker is just too great for mere mortals to resist. In this case the tinkering appears to have already happened, and an early failure to trouble the scorer in any shape or form has been transformed into a steady record. So for the last couple of years, when Copper’s Gold has seven or more weeks between races, he has a record of 116212, with the sixth place being the only one of those races shorter than three miles. The distance could also be a factor in the non-results littering his early career, when he was mostly running at 2m 4f or shorter. Still, that is all water under the bridge now. Which is another pleasing cliché.

Races over 3 miles or more, with at least seven weeks since the last race

DANCING DIK     (Chris Grant)

7 year old bay gelding     (Diktat – Maureena)     3952311S/425421720/4

It is not clear in searching BHA regulations, of which there are enough to restock the library at Alexandria , whether certain horses are only allowed to run at times when impressionable children will not be present. God forbid that UK-Jumping would ever support knee-jerk reactions or legislation for the sake of occupying the time of the legislators, but the vulnerable need to be protected from Dancing Dik. Expect some sort of tabloid campaign soon. For a long while, it was his trainer that was doing a sterling job of defending sensibilities, as Dancing Dik was not sighted in public between April 2010 and December 2011, when he made a very acceptable chase debut at Kelso, eight lengths behind Lie Forrit, undermined by a tired but minor error two from the finish. Looking at his hurdles career, he did finish second on a sharp track twice, but two more seconds and all three wins came on galloping ones, and that seems to provide the stimulus that Dancing Dik needs to turn a good turn into a glorious success. Along with a decent test of stamina.

Handicap chases or handicap hurdles on a galloping track, over 2m 6f or more

FITOBUST     (Seamus Mullins)

6 year old bay gelding     (Classic Cliché – Noan Rose)     2P-407

Although he almost made a flying start to his career when finishing second in a bumper, it was at Plumpton (so 2m 2f) and on heavy, which is a combination of circumstances that have tended not to see immediate hurdling prospects in the finest light. So to find in the intervening eleven months that only three of Fitobust’s esteemed compadres in the great Plumpton slog have even managed a place is not really that surprising. What works for the horse himself, is that he has pootled round in a manner that suggests events sometime in the future are far more important than the present. He pulled up at Chepstow in his next race, a novice hurdle (good ground, fast race, reported broken blood vessel possibly due to tempting fate with his name), and then returned to Plumpton after a summer break for a fourth place in a race of reasonable quality. Two subsequent runs have not been fantastic, but Fitobust has never looked like a novice hurdle winner. Novice handicap hurdle? Well that could well be a very different story. Being trained so close to the firing ranges of Salisbury Plain opens the possibility that he may be suited to running in a thunderstorm, as the background noise will disturb him less than other horses.

Handicap hurdles, 2m 5f or more on good to soft/soft/heavy ground, rated up to 100

HEAVENLY CHORUS     (Keith Reveley)

10 year old bay mare     (Key Of Luck – Celestial Choir)     0364/5585P16/2173514/818705/550245641/44592113786-3235

This mare is a bit of departure from the norm for the selections list, as rather than having shown a preference for a circumstance that sits on the edge of the range of experience, Heavenly Chorus has plonked herself slap bang in the middle. If she was buying coffee, a shop that had only large or small would confuse her, with the option for a medium missing. She would be the child that sits in the very centre of the roundabout to minimise movement. If a politician, she would be the most gruesomely stereotypical Lib-Dem. One aspect of her career, which has produced seven wins from forty-four starts over obstacles (also ran in four bumpers with, predictably, a modicum of promise), is that she is not likely to be winning from marks higher than 105, i.e. safely in the middle of the talent range of the horse population, and having just turned ten, a drastic change to that is not likely. The most odd preference is for a medium sized field. Some horse thrive on the mania of a mass charge around, others the chance to mentally dominate a small turnout. For Heavenly Chorus, she has a strong trend for excelling when between nine and twelve run. Add those two combinations together, and her tally is 2 wins from 6 in chases and 4 wins from 10 over hurdles – a combined exceptionally good 37.5% hit rate, with a level stake profit of 27 points. Additionally three of her four second places fit the field size criteria. She will not appreciate a stand out effort like that at all, which is why we do not teach horses maths. Ever.

Handicap chases or handicap hurdles, rated up to 105, with between nine and twelve runners

SWALING     (Victor Dartnall)

6 year old bay gelding     (Oscar – Princess Supreme)     2-

Although yet to reappear this season, there was enough promise in the sole run so far of Swaling to think that he is one to keep a very close eye on when he does emerge from the wilds of Brayford, on the edge of Dartmoor . In a cunning trick to make punters associate his location with some form of donkey sanctuary, Victor Dartnall is able to inflate the prices of his bumper runners, leading to them posting a steady level stakes profit. There are two reasons why Swaling failed to make the stats even better. Firstly, he was completely befuddled by the idea of going flat out over the last few hundred metres of the race. Secondly, the opposition tried too hard, which is a common problem found in horses, especially the ones carrying your money. Golden Gael, who beat Swaling two lengths, has won a couple of novice hurdles since, and third place Wiffy Chatsby won a bumper next time (but has admittedly gone a bit whiffy in the last couple of months). The rest were toiling fifteen lengths or much more back. Good form, and plenty of improvement possible.

Hurdles over 2m 4f or more

WISTOW     (Pam Sly)

8 year old bay mare     (Sir Harry Lewis – River Bay )     50/F534P/3117-32

With stablemate Helpston having had a bit of a wobble when on the selections list and then finding his form again once released from it, picking another Pam Sly horse seems like asking for trouble. But Wistow is so very, very likeable. She did not show up much in bumpers, and fell mid race on her hurdling debut. Just when it seemed that she was likely to be short changed in both the talent and good luck departments, she turned the corner and lost novice hurdles by 15, 10 and 3 lengths. After randomly inserting a fiasco at Doncaster , Wistow had another close loss, and then completed her about turn with three mile wins at Fakenham and Warwick. She rocketed up the handicap as a result, and found the mares’ novice handicap hurdle final at Newbury to be far too much of a speedsters race. This autumn she has gone over fences, starting off well at Uttoxeter and progressing to lose a 3m 3f Sedgefield race by a neck, with a progressive(ish) pointer back in third. Although there have been some better days outside the conditions to be nominated, she does look most at home over marathon trips on an undulating course.

N.B. Runs in a five runner race on New Year's Eve.

Handicap chases over 3m or more on an undulating track