MARCH 2011 HORSES

9 year old grey mare     (Environment Friend – Michelee)     6/16P/11985/P/3110PP-4

In this instance, what we are seeking is a turn around in fortune, but it is entirely possible as Aberdeen Park has had her last three jumps runs in chases and the message that she has given, loud and clear, is that she does not care a jot for that job. Considering her hurdles career, she won her second attempt, a seller at Towcester, but after that she needed a sharp track to excel, picking up four non-sellers. Her record on those venues is 11511, and even when she did get turned over, it was by a mere five lengths. It is not as if she is too old to cut the hurdles mustard, and she has not been disastrous, in her level, on the flat, so what we can watch from a far is fascinating struggle to see who is the most stubborn – the mare or her trainer.

Hurdles on a sharp track, over 2m 4f or more

DOUBLE DEFAULT     (Martin Todhunter)

10 year old chesnut gelding     (Beneficial – Over The Risc)     2211/U3/P2/-0FP3232

It is taking a long time, but Double Default is gradually working his way around to actually adding a chase win to the pair of hurdles he nabbed back in 2007. Normally it is a sign of staying well clear when a horse is nearing four years without a win, but as the form figures above show, he has not been over imbued with chances to put that right. And when he has, Double Default has often run adequately in defeat. What is especially useful of late is that his chase career is ceasing to be an utter shambles, a disruption that was probably inevitable from the moment that his tack broke whilst jumping the first fence on his chase debut. It produced an unseated, and worse, an omen that he struggled to shake off. Time permitting, Julian Cope would probably write a song about Double Default knowing and accepting his destiny, whilst standing on a menhir. Now organisation and balance is being restored, Double Default is one to track on the mud at about two and a half miles.

Chases on soft or heavy, over 2m 3f to 2m 6f

LOST TWO STARS     (Colin Tizzard)

6 year old grey mare     (Fourstars Allstar – Beagan Rose)     4-7443

This was an exciting mare to come across - it always is when spotting a novice hurdler with unexceptional form numbers by the name, but much more promise behind the scenes, when the races are looked at in detail. She was beaten five lengths in a sixteen strong field on her debut, and only six when further down the places next time - although it was one of the dreaded, career-damning, Lingfield all-weather jobs. Lost Two Stars then went hurdling and started a love of fourth place at Taunton. On her next run she was a length behind a 105-rated horse in third, so the handicapper did really give her a two pound present with a rating of 102. So with that mark in place, it was a slight surprise that she stayed in non-handicap novice races. After trying to make the running in deep ground at Fontwell, which failed as much due to bad jumping as anything else, Lost Two Stars gained her best finishing position, but failed to run up to that existing mark. She ought to be able to do better in handicap hurdles.

Handicap hurdles over 2m 4f or more, on good to soft or good, rated up to 110 - monitor a potential right handed preference

Lost Two Stars (far side) inadvertently leaves taking off a bit too late at Fontwell, but after adjusting accordingly this time, she repeatedly made the same error

ROOFTOP RAINBOW     (Linda Blackford)

7 year old bay gelding     (Lord Americo – Rulleena)     544

There is more to the Rooftop Rainbow story than the recent rules form, as he had four goes in pointing in Ireland, and put a late fall on debut behind him to pick up a win, a second and a third in the rest of his tries. For three hurdle races in Britain, he has started at prices of 66/1, 40/1 and 33/1 (decimal odds of no concern to him), but each time has run above market expectation, sadly never in a way to generate punting profit. Filbert, a horse of high potential, beat him 27 lengths, the same margin Rooftop Rainbow conceded to the similarly promising Cantlow last time, where three miles looked to be a little too far. The merits of his nineteen length fourth between those two runs are a touch shaky, which may prove to be an advantage when it comes to awarding him a handicap mark. Perhaps with four point runs to his name, he will be to switch into chases fairly soon, and inject some colour into life in his yard, which has been nearly two years without a winner. Rooftop Rainbow is shaping like the most effective material that they have had to work with in that time.

Handicap hurdles or chases, over 2m 4f to 2m 6f, rated up to 105

ROYAL MACKINTOSH     (Alan Mactaggart)

10 year old bay gelding     (Sovereign Water – Quick Quote)     0/33P11/6241256/13PP-8V

Up until four runs ago, everything tended to go swimmingly for Royal Mackintosh, as he had won a point-to-point and then having to do nothing more adventurous than keep turning up at Carlisle to ensure that the triumphs kept ticking over. His overall history at the track is 1121561V. The void race recently is simply one of those things, and even the two occasions that he failed to make the frame –coinciding with a peak in his handicap mark – Royal Mackintosh was hardly humiliated. He is now back down to his last winning rating and there must be every possibility that he can protect us from the ravages of inclement punting weather. Sadly, in this case, an unexpected soaking is no opportunity for a warranty claim.

Races over 3m or further, on a right handed, easy, undulating track, on good to soft, soft or heavy

UBI ACE     (Tim Walford)

5 year old bay gelding     (First Trump – Faithful Beauty)     23

He was quite capable flat handicapper, a career he nearly ruined by winning a maiden, but Ubi Ace also ended up, after missing 2009, with another win over a mile and a half on good. He last ran on the level at Haydock in September, coming in second, from a mark of 72. These are, on the whole, appealing credentials for a hurdler in the making, but ones in which a bit of ultra-cunning placing will be needed to win a novice hurdle. What has happened to Ubi Ace is a sort of halfway house that has not achieved that non-handicapped triumph, but has given clues that it is possible. After four months without a run, he appeared at Wetherby and was second of eighteen. That good effort did not appear to have been improved when third of six at Musselburgh – up to 2m 4f and on soft ground. However, the winner, Aikman, named after one of the most dull quarterbacks and television pundits imaginable, looked pretty decent in following up at Huntingdon in a valuable race, and Ubi Ace was likely foiled by the going more than race distance when unable to challenge him.

Hurdles over 2m 3f to 2m 5f on good to soft or good