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OCTOBER 2011 HORSES |
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AJOOL
(Zoe Davison) 4 year old chesnut filly
(Aljabr – Tamgeed)
F58 After an inconvenient start to her
hurdling stint, Ajool has adapted better than the bare numbers tell to
the simple job of jumping over piles of sticks. On debut, she was just
being dismissed when falling at the second last, behind an array of
horses rated over 100. None the worse, she was fifth at Fakenham after
that, in a less strong race, but with the surging confidence borne of retaining
her balance to carry Ajool onwards. After a summer break, she ran at
Plumpton with similar encouragement, just shaping as if she would be
better for the run. With her flat win being only over a mile, stamina is
finite, but Ajool did manage a very close second over a quarter of a
mile further. That unproven staying power may mean that when she commits
to handicap hurdles, testing ground will be too much for her, as will
races much beyond the minimum trip. Handicap hurdles up to 2m 1f, rated up
to 95, not on soft or heavy
Ajool (10) completes race number three. Let us hope she will be as fearless in search of victory as UK-Jumping is in seeking unexpected (and inconvenient) camera angles HAZY TOM
(Charlie Longsdon)
PIC 5 year old bay gelding
(Heron Island – The Wounded Cook)
11 A hazy pick or just a lazy one? In
addition to his two bumper wins, he also won an open maiden at Thorpe
Lodge, so nobody can argue that Hazy Tom is sneaking in under the radar.
However, the bumper wins were in April and September, where he has not
had to take on the elite of the younger generation. The race he won at
Bangor is not throwing up winners from the rest of the field. At
Worcester recently, he did see of dual earlier winner Thespis Of Icaria,
but the rest of the runners were either debuting or a bit short of
places from the earlier form. So, having given the impression that he
will be suited to longer distance hurdles, the hope is that the limited
genius shown by victims to date will be enough to inflate his price a
little. He runs in the colours of an owner who has expressed a big
preference for long distance chasers, so if he does not win his hurdles
over longer trips, it is not just us he is letting down, he is letting
down everyone, including himself. Hurdles over 2m 5f or more
Hazy Tom seeks win number three - and he means it! MINNIE HILL (Victor Dartnall) 7 year old bay mare (Oscar – Greybrook Lass) 542/F14444P/141- This is a selection where it very much pays to keep your eyes peeled, as Minnie Hill is a horse to be on first time back from a break - i.e. just when more important things have pushed her to the back of the mind, such as the situation in the Eurozone or where is the best place locally to track down a pint of Spitfire. And the breakier the break, the better for her. Excluding her Chepstow bumper debut, where she got on the wrong side of a horse that was intent on a swim in the Severn Estuary, her record when having had a couple of months off (let us round it neatly at sixty days) is 111 – the latest after the snow-enforced disruption of late 2010. All of them have come on right-handed tracks, but good runs when busier at Newton Abbot and Fontwell imply that it is the degree of freshness, not a direction bias, that is the key to Minnie Hill poking her nose in front. Bear in mind that she almost always runs right-handed anyway, and over the last five seasons, Victor Dartnall’s record at Exeter, Wincanton, Huntingdon and Taunton is played 192, won 42 (69.47 points level stake profit). It is therefore hardly surprising that he sends plenty of runners to that quartet of tracks. With other small, right-handed courses scoring 11 from 58 (16.13 points profit), perhaps we have a trainer circumstance to follow, rather than just a horse one. Let us currently rely on Minnie Hill to fine tune it. The only real concerns are a steadily climbing handicap mark and the fear that she will start off in a novice chase against horses that are simply too good for her. The wins have also been on going softer than good, but that is a factor which appears to be taken into consideration when the moment to launch her back into the fray is picked. Races after more than 60 days since the last run MISTER PETE (Chris Grant) 8 year old bay gelding (Piccolo - Whistfilly) 6P/1/070/543116/773221- The story of Mister Pete is a simple one. Send him to a galloping track, or give up completely. Fortunately for horses of his ilk in the north, the likes of Newcastle and Ayr have, in recent years, staged many more low grade races, so he is not as starved of opportunity as once he would have been. Despite that, runs at Ayr have been conspicuous by their absence, despite the regularity with which he would get his ideal soft ground at that place though the winter. Perhaps the prevailing winds that bring in the Mister Pete compatible rain were so strong that the horsebox could not make sufficient westerly progress. There is one anomalous record in the book, a good ground win at Kelso. As it was almost four years ago and a novice’s seller, the assessment is that it was of low enough grade that Mister Pete could win despite the venue. And a final, common observation – he has not tried chasing yet, but no need to panic if he does. SWEET SEVILLE
(Terry Clement) 7 year old bay mare
(Agnes World – Hispalis)
5F1034/4P31P653P-6 With two wins to her name, Sweet
Seville is not a mare from which we can expect a sudden sweep of
destruction through the jump races of Britain, so the task is to unearth
a pattern from what she has managed to achieve. For starters, we need to
be very wary about chases, as she has run in three, been poor twice and
ended up last of three finishers in a very dodgy event on the other
occasion. As she has won hurdles at Fakenham and Worcester, the only
pattern to take from there is a possible left-handed preference –
except that Sweet Seville has never been totally inept going clockwise.
In fact, what we need to look for is a severe test of stamina. She has
run well at Towcester, but gained her latest win in a Fakenham three
miler. There is more to come when the challenge is ultra-dour, and we
must retain faith and patience when things do not pan out, as she seems
the type who can turn her form around in the blink of an eye, for better
or for worse. Handicap hurdles over 3 miles or more,
rated up to 110 VICTORS SERENADE
(Anthony Honeyball) 6 year old bay gelding (Old Vic - Dantes Serenade) 5739/13212- As far as this horse is concerned, the trainer has been extremely helpful for the eager mass of punters looking to follow him (Sid & Doris Bonkers) as after setting out his stall over hurdles, he gave him a handy spin over fences which at least gave us some hints that the horse was up to the job - some sort of BHA award for accommodating public interest is due. The fact that it ended Victors Serenade's season and yet was only mid-March is a touch worrying, as it suggests that all was not well afterwards. Looking back at his hurdle races, soft ground wins over three miles at Exeter and Towcester, we can also deduce that the chase debut was not the be all and end all of his year, as two and a half miles might have been a touch on the short side, even with the climb to the line. The fact that he has never run left-handed is almost certainly significant, although the choice is taken to not (yet) included it in the conditions, as if forced to go the other way round, Victors Serenade might produce a pleasant surprise, or in a small field chase, get away with it in a manner not possible in a more combative handicap hurdle. Chases over 2m 7f or more, on a stiff finish and good to soft/soft/heavy ground |
