BLOODAXE'S PREVIEW

The Plan is to pick a race each day and give it a fairly detailed preview - hopefully picking up a worthwhile punt, but not scrabbling around for one. In reality, the "every jumps day" might prove impractical. For instance, you have been to Plumpton, had a couple of pints, get the train back, go to the pub. There might well be time to go through a race and publish, but no-one wants the unintelligible guff. So The Plan and The Harsh Reality may not always coincide. 

The verdict is simple for each horse: The more Axes the better, but lay, or at least avoid, the Stalins. Keep a wary eye on the Mysterons

In order to handle changeable ground, a preference table has been added - the key is: 

Y+ = Strong preference          Y = OK         

Y? = Probably OK          ?Y = Maybe OK          ? = insufficient evidence

?x = Maybe a problem          x? = probably a problem          x = definite problem          blank = no evidence to judge

4^th February, 4.50 Ffos Las, Bedford Tavern Croydon Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Class 6)

Course: left-handed, galloping, level

Distance: 2 miles

Forecast going: Heavy (Soft places)

MISTER NEWBY (Richard Phillips), 11-11    

Debuted last summer with a solid second to Bhaltair at Wetherby, his conqueror there having won hurdles and chases since at an unexceptional level. The third and fourth that day have been placed a couple of times each since. This horse went on to win his other run, on soft ground at Plumpton in December, with the three that chased him home having a win and several seconds between them in the last couple of months. So despite contesting races with no reason to be strong, his performances in them now look very solid.

ACCORDING TO TREV (Nigel Twiston-Davies), 11-4    

Performed fairly poorly in a couple of Irish points last spring, but did better in two autumn runs, ending up with a third and a win. He fetched a run-of-the-mill £30,000 at the sales since, and given that he is already six, the fact that he begins under rules in a bumper rather than a hurdle adds to the impression that he may be a bit of a slow learner. Although Irish pointing going for some reason seems to be as useful as a form guide as a chocolate teapot, all four runs there were on good or faster – i.e. quite different to what he meets here. We can only know, of course, in hindsight whether that is a good or a bad thing.

HERE COMES MOSS (John Flint), 11-4

Raced in a Ludlow bumper on his sole start to date, being very green before the race, but not performing too badly for the first mile and a half plus – the already successful winner skipped miles clear of the rest, who appeared nothing out of the ordinary. That was only a couple of weeks ago, so he needs to make rapid progress in double quick time.

LITTLE CHIP (Charlie Longsdon), 11-4    

Finished runner-up in an Irish point on his debut and after being sold for a mere 11, 000 quid, he was third on his bumper run in the UK . The latter was at Huntingdon, which is normally home to a fair standard of bumper, won by speedy horses, but this seven runner event was not the strongest one the course had seen, even though the second was a previous bumper winner. This more testing ground is an issue, but he is a possible winner.

SERANWEN (Peter Bowen), 11-4    

He makes his racecourse debut, and in the last five seasons, Peter Bowen has had 29 wins from 158 bumper runners, which is probably a bit more prolific than he would be associated without investigating the facts. He has to be considered on that basis, although the choice of starting here and now is probably more due to being owned by the Ffos Las owner – does that tell us that this is a supremely well set plan or is would another time and place been ideal?

UBIQUE (Mark Bradstock), 11-4

His only race came on heavy ground here, and the good news is that he was second. The counter to that is only six ran and he was beaten thirty lengths. Overall the race distances were 30, 14, 11, 26 and a good old fashioned ‘distance.’ He might improve a lot for that, but the achievements of others are stronger recommendations.

WILDE SPECULATION (Fergal O’Brien), 10-11    

She is the other newcomer to line up, and although her trainer is yet to have a bumper winner, the blank is from only five runners. A complete guess.

Stables in good form: Charlie Longsdon

Stables in below par form: Richard Phillips, Nigel Twiston-Davies

Obvious the biggest question to answer is why a pub in Croydon is sponsoring a race at a course that it spectacularly inaccessible from their location. And if organising a weekend away – South Wales in winter? Madness. As for the race itself, it is either going to be very testing, frozen as dusk closes in or a skating rink if it rains then freezes (plastic Jesus on dashboard of the car is non-mandatory). Is it cynical to wonder if they will get to the Welsh Champion Hurdle or the valuable staying chase, and then abandon? All things considered, the preference is for Little Chip, but with the uncertainty over heavy ground, the minimum price is set at 3/1.

5^th February, 3.30 Musselburgh, John Smith’s Future Champions Novice Chase (Class 3)

Course: right-handed, sharp, level

Distance: 2 miles 4 furlongs

Forecast going: Good (Good to Firm places)

BOLD SIR BRIAN (Lucinda Russell), 11-8, official rating 139    

Lost his first pair of chases to Frascati Park and Kudu Country, with the former coming out best when that pair met in a play-off at the end of Nov. The result there inspired Bold Sir Brian to get his own chase tally going at Hexham on heavy, but the follow-up at Kelso was a tactical three runner affair, and rating him on his beating of Lie Forritt may be harsh – he looked the least likely winner before the last, but just proved to be the strongest on the rise to the line. He has not always been totally convincing in his jumping as well, and is thus has a nice combination of good and bad credentials.

MAGGIO (Patrick Griffin), 11-4, or 133    

Formerly trained in Britain , he moved to Ireland , but since that has had nine of his thirteen races on British tracks anyway - have boat, will travel? Despite some good shows producing a respectably high rating, his tally from three bumpers and fifteen hurdles was 0 wins and 6 second places. Debuting over fences at this course and distance, he was unamazingly second again. Outclassed at Cheltenham by Al Ferof next, he finally got off the mark last time by beating Vosges, presumably because he was too far clear to lose when it dawned on him what was about to happen – and also because he had a rare day of not attempting to make all the running. A stalin is awarded, but another patient tactical race might undermine that slur, although bear in mind that racing midfield or at the rear had in the past produced even worse results than the manic charge.

OWEN GLENDOWER (Nicky Henderson), 11-4, or 133    

Won a bumper and a couple of big field/modest quality novice hurdles before finding life a bit tougher taking on the big boys. His best hurdle run since was his last, so far, when a close third at Ffos Las last summer, in the first use of a tongue tie. Returning in Nov, the tongue tie was gone and he won his first chase, at Ludlow , in slightly wobbly fashion, looking a bit idle in front, but having the benefit of being chased by a horse with little interest in overtaking. Although fourth in his other chase, it was a bigger field and a handicap, and he might even have run a bit better than the debut but with nothing to show for it. He would probably prefer a little more mud to be flying than is predicted here.

NODFORMS VIOLET (Karen McLintock), 10-12, or 123

Began in bumpers in the manner of a fairly useful prospect, but his profile since having to jump stuff has been one of gradual regression. Last January, he staged a one-off revival when second on soft ground at Ayr , but after that he was tailed off in a novice hurdle, pulled up in a novice handicap hurdle, third in a novice chase (actually not at all a bad show with a bit more consideration) and finally pulled up in a similar race, here behind Maggio. Despite the occasional teaser, he cannot be relied upon at present.

STOPPED OUT (Kate Walton), 10-12, or 125    

Landed a bumper on his racing debut, and found a useful knack of popping up in hurdles at regular intervals, which left him with a record of four wins from eighteen attempts. The last two were over 2m 6½f at Kelso, so there is a big question to answer as to whether this race is far enough for him. An early faller when he took on Bold Sir Brian at Hexham, he has been second in his three other chases, between 2m and 2m 4f, mainly giving the impression that longer races would have suited.

PENA DORADA (Lucinda Russell), 10-9, or 119, cheekpieces

Fell early in the Maggio race referred to earlier, and like Stopped Out, he has added three second places to the accident. His own personal branding on the history is to have a respectable fourth at Hexham as well. He does have a juvenile hurdle win to his name, at Kelso on good, but including his flat career, there are too many second places for comfort. He has only raced right-handed twice – the fall here and what was by far his worst hurdle race, last autumn. Although likely to relish the ground and a fair third at this trip over hurdles, his form is a little bit behind most of the others and this exact race does not appeal as the one that will allow him to develop it enough to win.

Preferences table

Stables in good form: Lucinda Russell, Nicky Henderson

Stables in below par form: none

THE BLOODAXE VERDICT  

Let us take an optimistic view that the sandy soil of Musselburgh will thaw out in time for Sunday, and not be under four inches of snow. Initially an interesting race, it actually looks most notable for the beatability of the participants. Ultimately, it should boil down to Bold Sir Brian (needs to be a bit more certain of himself) and Owen Glendower (seems to be right at the upper limit of his talents here), with the latter a touch more appealing as an option. Either would have appeal at 3/1 or more, with that allowing for the suspected weaknesses coming to the fore.

IVAR THE BONELESS' SIX NATIONS PREVIEW

The six countries can be divided into pairs of contention. France and Ireland at the top, England and Wales in the middle, Scotland and Italy in rear. Taking them in turn:

France: L'Ancien Regime has gone after the World Cup, but the new one has avoided making sweeping changes, only cleared out a couple of perceived trouble makers. Thierry Dusautoir also seems an unusually level headed captain for France. Their main risk? The traditional inability to play five strong games in a row. Ireland at home will be key.

Ireland: At face value they look to be an aging side, but have in fact got into a good process of losing one or two veterans a year, and thus never being caught with a side too battered nor one too inexperienced. The fact that injury to Brian O'Driscoll has led to playing Keith Earls out of position just gives a hint that they lack some depth if the injury situation escalates.

England: Too inexperienced to win this (why do all English sports think you have to scrap a team and rebuild every so often? You never see New Zealand or South Africa doing that, and the Irish seem to have taken note). In certain areas, the players are not even that experienced in league/Heineken Cup rugby, so it is all about how they play than immediate results. Could have a decisive impact on who actually wins it, without threatening to do so themselves.

Wales: Early signs of believing the hype about their World Cup run, which really only required two good performances. A bit hampered by injuries in the preparation, and seem to be struck too strongly with the temptation to play their best players when not 100% ready, which indicates lack of depth, or lack of faith in the back-ups. Not good enough all round to win it, but like England, they could upset the Franco-Irish applecart.

Scotland: Still hampered by lack of playing depth, and have again resorted to importing from abroad to make up the numbers. Overall the team looks bulky but a bit sluggish, and their strategy will be to drag teams into a war of attrition. The best opponents will dominate the game sufficiently to prevent that being possible.

Italy: The third team with a new coaching set-up, and given M. Brunel's reputation as an eccentric genius, you just never know what they may turn up. He himself has suggested that this is the start of a long term plan, so if they fail to win a game, it would not be a surprise. But given who is coaching them, it would be risky to dismiss them completely on a game by game basis.

Conclusions:

France are the pick, but the minimum price is 3/1, and at 6/1 or more go for France & Ireland to finish first and second.

Top try scorer: Tommy Bowe appeals, because it is likely to be a Frenchman or an Irishman (or Chris Ashton), but the French rarely resist the temptation to have a good rotate in the backs, and Bowe ought to play all five games, if he is fit. Minimum price is 7/1.

Take a close look at Wales to beat France on the last weekend, especially if France are unbeaten by then, and also Italy to do well against Scotland (possibly a handicap bet, depending on the line quoted) at the same time.