BLOODAXE'S PREVIEW

The Plan is to pick a race each day and give it a fairly detailed preview - hopefully picking up a worthwhile punt, but not scrabbling around for one. In reality, the "every jumps day" might prove impractical. For instance, you have been to Plumpton, had a couple of pints, get the train back, go to the pub. There might well be time to go through a race and publish, but no-one wants the unintelligible guff. So The Plan and The Harsh Reality may not always coincide. 

The verdict is simple for each horse: The more Axes the better, but try to avoid or lay the Stalins. Keep a wary eye on the Mysterons

In order to handle changeable ground, a preference table has been added - the key is: 

Y+ = Strong preference          Y = OK          Y? = Probably OK          ?Y = Maybe OK          ? = insufficient evidence

?x = Maybe a problem          x? = probably a problem          x = definite problem          blank = no evidence to judge  

4^th September, 2.50 Stratford, Walls And Ceilings International Beginners’ Chase, (Class 4)

Course: left handed, sharp, level

Distance: 2 miles 4 furlongs

Forecast Going: Good to Firm (Good places)

MAM RATAGAN (Mrs HS Main), 11-6, official rating 120

Won his bumper debut in 2006 for Nicky Henderson but did not really build on that, and only saw the racecourse once from the start of 2007 to June 2009. His form early on his return was fairly encouraging, though it did feature an excess of the number 2, and in the four times he was runner-up, the furthest he lost by was 2½ lengths - where is the cut off line in narrow defeats between encouragement and despair? The current year proved far less productive and after pulling up at Newbury in March, he has not raced. Although there have been redeeming races, it was very disconcerting that he could not win a race that went to that paragon of ungenuinuity or ungenuineness or, if you prefer, shirking, Predateur. As far as the time and place go, on one hand his front running preference is good for this course, as long as he is fit enough to see out a trip that possibly over stretches his stamina, but to date he prefers a galloping track and usually disappoints on a sharp one. Too many negatives.

MR JOHNSON (Michael Gates), 11-6

Got beaten 101 lengths in a hurdle at Limerick. Went P2PP in Irish points. Got beaten 83 lengths when last of ten in a Worcester hurdle. Unless something mad happens, he can be safely ignored for now, even in a race as uncertain as this.

RAVENCLAW (Emma Lavelle), 11-6    

This is his chase debut, although he did have a go in an Irish point. He fell. Somehow he manage to convert a hopeless thrashing in a Roscommon bumper into places in rather better heats at Cork and last year’s Listowel Festival. His hurdle form since has been a solid 213, at Wexford, Fontwell and Plumpton, starting at three miles and descending to two and a half. All the signs are that he will be a three miler in chases and probably happier on softer ground (never tried anything faster than good to yielding), so the assumption is that this is a warm up for more important objectives down the line. Keep an eye on him, as a neat round of jumping would be a good reference for the future. Overall, too many negatives also, but perhaps greater potential than some of the oppo.

REBEL HUNTER (Steve Gollings), 11-6, or 101

Another newcomer to chasing, he took seven attempts to win his Irish point, but completed every time and did not suffer any embarrassingly huge defeats. British novice hurdle form has gone 3443, with two bad losses and two less discouraging ones. He tends to race up with the pace – a help here – but has worrying shown an inclination to blunder late in the race, when the pressure increases, which would be really quite unhelpful in this case. He would need to improve on his hurdle qualities to figure, but that is not beyond the bounds of possibility. 

ROCK THE SOUL (Seamus Mullins), 11-6

Was far less productive in Irish points than e.g. Rebel Hunter, and when he tried a Punchestown bumper last October, ended up a twenty fourth of twenty five runners, beaten 84 lengths. Another that is either a longer term project or the sort of speculative guesswork that occasionally pays off, but more often does not.

SECRET TUNE (Tom George), 11-6, blinkers    

His hurdle rating peaked at 140, but he had been in a bit of a slump until placed at Newton Abbot last time (soft ground possibly not ideal), when that rating had fallen to 130. On actual achievements he is therefore a bit ahead of the oppo. The question to be addressed is his indifferent chase run last December. A sign that he is not equipped for the job, or just another indicator of an out of form horse? The margin of defeat to less talented rivals seems a bit much to be just the latter. When he was going well, he ran almost exclusively on galloping tracks. But that could be a false clue, because he also tended to stick to them when running badly. With the trip and the ground also raising doubts, there is plenty of reason to be wary of him.

BESHAIRT (Dai Burchell), 10-13    

Another debuting over fences, and the speculative and only partially relevant (at best) application of hurdle ratings to this does mean that with the mares’ allowance, she is up with the best of those lurking behind Secret Tune. She has a course win over a similar trip – although using hold up tactics – and whilst her form is better on faster ground, she appears fairly flexible about conditions. The concerns are that she has had only two runs back since missing just over a calendar year, and on the hurdle one of those managed an honourable defeat despite ploughing through most flights of hurdles as if she had only over schooled over holograms. The follow up was a tailed off fifth in a flat race.  If you knew of a reason why the old Beshairt would emerge, she would be of interest. 

Preferences table

Stables in form: none

Stables out of form: Mrs HS Main

ERIK BLOODAXE'S OVERALL VERDICT

Uncertainties over loss of form, never had the form, or how well they will translate to fences makes this something of a betting minefield. As referred to above, had she not lost a flat race by 71 lengths recently, there would be a temptation to risk a little of Beshairt. Flat to chase is chalk to cheese, but some ability to raise a gallop is ideal in both disciplines. Another angle is to consider that of all the flaws exposed to the open air, Ravenclaw’s seem least calamitous, although backing a first time out Emma Lavelle runner is always carries a risk of not getting much of a run for your money. Is the simple answer to lay Secret Tune – or anything that displaces him as a short priced favourite?

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