CAIRNSHILL (Kenny Johnson), 11-13, official rating 121

When trained in Ireland he managed one win and a fair smattering of places, the moment of ultimate glory coming over 3m 1f at Kilbeggan two years ago. The change of scene has done him good. He started for the new team with a close second and a win (in a small field) at Carlisle in staying hurdles and he added a race on good ground over course and distance in May. Given his past record, finishing nine lengths second at Hexham over only two and a half miles is not a sign that his summer is falling to pieces. Weight carrying need not be a problem for him (and he has been running in higher class races), but a having a rider still seeking her first winner just adds a little bit of extra pressure.

JUSTATENNER (Tristan Davison), 11-12, or 120, hood

This horse also had a summer revelation that coincided with a change of stable, but he did it in 2018, winning three of his first four for Tristan Davison and losing the other by only a short head. The handicap mark rose from 83 to 115 but even then he managed to remain competitive through into winter. After a modest show in February he was allowed four months break and has returned to action in the style of a horse closing up on another success. Two of his four wins and two of his five second places have been at Cartmel over 2m 6f, but he has shown that he can stay plenty further than this race.

BORUMA (James Moffatt), 11-8, or 116

His first win was way back in 2014, sandwiched between falls over fences and the setbacks appeared to demorialise him for a while - even now ending up rolling in the grass is an occupational hazard that crops up a bit too often in his record. In a connected stat he has failed to be a prolific winner, now only on four career victories, three of which were here over 2m 6f. He has also finished second here three times, one using this distance, but being trained locally means that even the encouraging score of that nature comes after seventeen visits. Stamina seems to be borderline, but he is still on a mark that he might win from, despite a victory derived rise as recently in May.

COILLTE EILE (Richard Newland), 11-7, or 115

An Irish point winner at the second try, she was not embarrassed in two hurdles and a bumper in Ireland before a really encouraging second of seventeen when a tongue tie was added on Boxing Day at Limerick. That proved to be the cue to a sale, and her next run, five months later, saw her debut for the Newland team and finish in midfield on handicap debut, although beaten only seven lengths. That run was built upon with a win at Aintree over 3m 0.5f last month in mares only company, both UK races being tongue tie-less. She was under pressure all the way to the line and seemed to relish the scrap, so there is no pessimism over her stamina. A six pounds rise is a little harsh but she is still in the realm where natural improvement can pick it up.

POINT N SHOOT (Nigel Hawke), 11-6, or 114, blinkers

Bloodaxe was looking for an excuse to describe his results as scattergun but four wins and five places from nineteen hurdling spins is a horse doing a rather steady job. There was a hint of inconsistency crept into the 2019 results but he had a wind op in May and got that fourth success in the only run since. This will give us a clue as to whether the surgery made a difference or was it just a case of a win being about due irrespective of any other defensive measures taken. Be wary of rain because for no apparent reason he has fallen or unseated three times in soft going from only seven runs and some sort of nasty coincidence is stretching itself out.

APTLY PUT (James Moffatt), 11-0, or 108, tongue tie

He had a couple of spins in points a couple of years ago, finishing third in Ireland before a win in Britain and then had a second in the pointers bumper at Aintree. A nice break to think about how to put his skills to use hurdling followed, but it seemed that his conclusion was that it was very hard to do well. Once in handicaps, for which he was fitted with a tongue tie, he has improved, losing all four by fewer than nine lengths. Since last in action in February he has been sold and this does not look an easy race for him to be trying to break his Rules duck. There is not enough evidence to be certain but good ground may be preferred.

DAVID JOHN (Kevin Hunter), 10-13, or 107

He is currently representing his fifth different stable and is risking wearing out his welcome here too. In October he was beaten four lengths at Kelso (good ground, 3m 2f) when rated 100 but the other three appearances have not had anywhere like that level of encouragement. In contrast he was running quite well in 2017 and summer of 2018, although not as often as ideal, and managed one win apiece in chases and hurdles. There was one flop on soft at Exeter, for which he was allowed seven months rest and bounced back to form with a win from today's mark. In general, however, he is at his best conceding weight to lesser horses - his record in handicaps when carrying under 11-0 is 5P5036.
The Plan is to pick a race each day and give it a fairly detailed preview - hopefully picking up a worthwhile punt, but not scrabbling around for one. In reality, the "every jumps day" might prove impractical. For instance, you have been to Plumpton, had a couple of pints, get the train back, go to the pub. There might well be time to go through a race and publish, but no-one wants the unintelligible guff. So The Plan and The Harsh Reality may not always coincide.

The verdict is simple for each horse: The more Axes the better, but lay, or at least avoid, the Stalins. Keep a wary eye on the Mysterons
In order to handle changeable ground, a preference table has been added - the key is:
Y+ = Strong preference      Y = OK      Y? = Probably OK      ?Y = Maybe OK      ? = insufficient evidence
?x = Maybe a problem      x? = probably a problem      x = definite problem      blank = no evidence to judge
22nd July, Cartmel 2.45, Handicap Hurdle (class 4, 0-120)

Course: Left-handed, sharp, undulating

Distance: 3 miles 1.5 furlongs
Going: Good to Soft

Stables in strong form: Richard Newland

Stables out of form: Kevin Hunter

Claiming Jockey Watch: Alison Clarke (Cairnshill) claims 7 lb, 0 wins. Harry Reed (Justatenner) claims 3 lb, 53 wins. Tom Buckley (Point N Shoot) claims 7 lb, 10 wins. Sam Coltherd (David John) claims 3 lb, 48 wins.
HorseGoing DistanceCourse Comments
HeavySoftGd-SoftGoodGd-Firm3m 1.5fLHSharpUndul
Coillte EileYYY?YYYproven to 3m 0.5f
Point N ShootY?YY?YYYY
Aptly PutY??YYYYYYstable debut
David Johnx?YY?YYYY
Points of Order
Coillte Eile is potentially still on the upgrade and has to be considered but there is also a seaking regard for Justatenner. Take 7/2 or more regarding either.

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