Stratford 27/05/11

With big fields and ferociously competitive racing punting needed someone that could be incredibly decisive when the need arose. So this was very much an observation for the future sort of day. The things seen were fairly eventful and maybe we saw the second coming before our eyes - in your face, failed apocalypse predicting man! Without betting markets needing much perusing, we had a chance to consider some of the more important questions in life. Why are so many of the current crop of jump jockeys equipped with indestructible noses? Which horses have the best names, and why do people bypass a chance to pick some corkers? Who invented prog metal? Given that from the South Pole any Antarctic coastline is north, do gangsta rap penguins avoid feuds based on points of the compass and sea/land interface points? With Sky having shown the Premiership rugby all season, why is the final on ESPN? Is it illegal to paint a garden shed? What if it was not an experiment in cyberspace rumour and Osama bin Laden really was a big fan of "The IT Crowd." And would the Bruins win game 7 against the Lightning late tonight, at long last returning to the place they belong - the Stanley Cup final.

The other bewildering thing about the night is wondering what universe Stratford actually operates in. It has a recent history of making one of the trickier viewing tracks worse at every opportunity, but we saw them at their most bizarre here.

1) When it was a Saturday afternoon meeting, this, the course's big meeting of the year, was packed to the rafters. Inexplicably, they moved it to an evening and crowds were reduced - long distance travellers simply were getting home too late. Now they have moved it to Friday night and the attendance plunged again. Will the track admit to being wrong, having watched racegoers vote with their feet, and return it to the Saturday day time slot?

2) In the John Corbet Cup (race 4), Oca De Thaix had a clear lead with a lap to go, when he went round the water jump by the stands. First impression was that the rider had got excessively concerned about the attentions of a loose horse and steered a bad direction, but the horse was quickly pulled up - far more rapidly than the gradual easing down that normally accompanies a boneheaded blunder. So the cause was a mystery to everyone, and although the trainer was called to the weighing room, no announcement was heard as to the explanation of the incident, and nothing was posted on the noticeboard (where details of an earlier, more trivial, enquiry were in place). People who turned out deserve to be kept better informed.

3) In the Champion Hunter Chase, Johnny Kilawee played up at the start, and after two aborted starts, the field went without him. Even on the third try, jockey Tom Weston was on board and desperately trying to get his horse in the pack and use the herd instinct to copy the others and set off. This failed, but the horse was announced s withdrawn. That was clearly not true, as when the race began, the rider was trying to start. Fortunately he had hit 40/1 in the ring and there was no Rule 4 deduction, but if there had been one, any winning punters affected would have been justified in being pretty angry. And for those who got a refund - it was their lucky night, as Johnny Kilawee is not unfamiliar with being disruptive at the start.

Going: Good (Good to Firm places)

Race 1: Racing Post Weekender Ladies' Hunter Chase [2m 7f]

1: Lady Myfanwy     2: Shouldhavehadthat     3: Hoo La Baloo

Winner owned: PB Miles, trained: Myfanwy Miles, ridden: Claire Hart

This was a very decent hunter chase, featuring the horses that had shared first and second in the last two renewals, and overall the nine runners had won 69 of their 149 pointing races. The 2009 winner Lady Myfanwy was back to her best, and won this fairly impressively. She drew clear of Shouldhavehadthat from the final bend, and looked as if she had a bit more up her sleeve had it been required. The runner-up had got a bit disheartened with regular racing in Nicky Henderson's yard, and although results had picked up in points, the suspicion before today had been that weak opposition had been the cause. The same was true of Hoo La Baloo, except that he has seemed equally as dodgy in this area of operations. Cannon Bridge, the title holder in this, has not been at his best in points and ran like age is catching up with him. On the other hand, Mad Victor has been having a decent 2011. Until now. He was at the rear and not getting in the race early, and things got worse until he pulled up. Warsaw Pact (by Polish Precedent, out of Always Friendly) showed that there is no correlation between superb names and running fast.

Lady Myfanwy does not waste an ounce of energy, ahead of Miss Midnight and Shouldhavehadthat

Race 2: Apex Working In The Community Hunter Chase [2m 1.5f]

1: Takeroc     2: Captain Marlon     3: Gaelic Flight

Winner owned: Chris Giles, Paul Nicholls & Julie Derham, trained: Paul Nicholls, ridden: Harry Derham

There is a school of thought that the handful of two mile hunter chases are an unnecessary sop to people who bought a two miler to do a three milers job. Every one of the thirteen runners had a handicap mark from a regular chasing career, and the joint highest rated prevailed. Having come into contention two out in cruise mode, Takeroc, not for the first time, did not find a lot more when put under pressure. It did seem that he was going to give the race away, but just remembered near the line to stick his nose in front. Tom Cannon, who had his last ride as an amateur at the Folkestone hunter chase night in mid-May and has had several more since, kept at Captain Marlon (himself not a paragon of determination) all the way, and nearly did worry the winner into a loss. The old timer Gaelic Flight showed good spirit to get a place, although he was badly done for pace in the last couple of furlongs, and fourth went to I Have Dreamed, who was a bad drifter in the betting.

A lap and a bit to go, and the ghostly Takeroc maintains a watching brief on Benefit Game (7), I Have Dreamed (white with chevrons) and Cheeky Lad (grey, brown sleeves). So much so that the presence of the fence comes as a bit of a surprise.

Race 3: Pertemps Network Novice Handicap Chase [2m 5.5f]

1: Spock     2: Diamond Eclipse     3: Marc Aurele

Winner owned: Jeffrey Hordle, trained: Paul Nicholls, ridden: Daryl Jacob

With Spock labouring in second, and thoughts were occuring that Daryl Jacob was in for the sack as Ditcheat second jockey for the crime of not being Ruby Walsh, he got a stay of execution when clear leader Life Of A Luso crumpled on landing at the last. He had not approached the fence in a convincing fashion, but was far enough clear that had he somehow found a leg and stayed up, he would have nabbed his third win on the bounce. Given that he was ten pounds worse off than when beating Diamond Eclipse narrowly at Newton Abbot, it would have been an excellent showing, although Diamond Eclipse was outpaced all the way, and regressed on that chase debut. Spock was making his chase debut, and did nothing to show he is anything other than one of the yard's lesser characters. He is nearly well named, by Lost World, out of Quark Top, but to the best of anyone's recollection, Vulcan was remote but fairly easy to find.

Race 4: pointtopoint.co.uk Champion Novice Hunter Chase, for the John Corbet Cup [3m 4f]

1: My Flora     2: Enter Paradise     3: Dammam

Winner owned: WD Edwards & J Whitfield, trained: Sheila Crow, ridden: Richard Burton

In a strong looking renewal of the novice championship, we witnessed a hugely impressive win by My Flora, who won in a canter. She may be the second coming of Mystic Music, who in the late eighties would descend from Scotland for this meeting and make everyone else look like idiots. Every one of Mystic Music's races went "midfield, quickened clear three out, easily." The only difference here was that My Flora did not quite quicken, but simply wound up a relentless gallop. She jumped much better than on her hunter chase debut and looks a mare with a massive future. After he got outpaced at Cheltenham before battling to a win, it was always possible that Dammam would find the race at this easier track, even over a bit longer, would be too quick, but the oppo was a bit better as well, and Sam Drinkwater was hard at work for the last two laps. The horse kept responding, but his jumping suffered as well, and stubborn persistence was not enough to hold at bay Enter Paradise, a disregarded stable mate of the winner. As his record in eleven British points is six wins, four seconds and a third, presumably the knowledge that he could not beat My Flora led to him being 20/1. This trio were a mile clear of the rest, although Rosie's Peacock would have probably been fourth had he not been stopped dead by an error two from home, and the same applies to Coome Hill, who chose to dismiss his rider a fence earlier. The Oca De Thaix incident is referred to above - the press reports confirm it to have been pilot error.

Richard Burton looks round after the line to see how far behind the oppo were

Race 5: Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap Hurdle [3m 3f]

1: Dais Return     2: Barnhill Brownie     3: King Of Castile

Winner owned: West Coast Haulage Ltd, trained: Peter Bowen, ridden: Jamie Moore

Before the race this seemed to have far too many possibles to get involved in a bet, but in real life it became a complete rout, with Dais Return breezing through the entire thing and just waiting for Jamie Moore to put the rest out of their misery, and runner-up Barnhill Brownie in turn smashing the rest into oblivion. The final margins were ten and nineteen lengths. The winner was only really proven up to 2m 6f but on this showing, the big step up in trip brought about a big improvement. Barnhill Brownie is running from a mark nineteen pounds higher than when third in this last year, which shows that whilst he has his off days, the handicapper is currently his biggest problem. King Of Castile struggled for most of the way, but nabbed third by a whisker due to stamina, and an odd ride by the jockey of Tarvini in fourth. Having settled at the back, as is his norm but not often ideal at Stratford, he made progress into third on the final lap, having to make some effort to do so. Turning for home he was still in that position, but when King Of Castile came to challenge, the rider did nothing in the saddle other than offer a few gentle nudges. When he was in danger of of losing third on the run-in, there was still minimal effort. He should have been placed. Bobbie Magern has not been living up to his better near-namesakes, and this change of distance and ground failed to transform results.

Swordsman has a going two minutes and leads from Am I Blue. Barnhill Brownie is already working hard (a lap remained) but is at least trying, with the disappointing Knighton Combe and more effective Dais Return (red cap) on his inner.

Race 6: W+S Recycling Stratford Foxhunters Champion Hunter Chase [3m 4f]

1: Southwestern     2: Eleazar     3: Templer

Winner owned: The Exmoor Partners, trained: Camilla Scott, ridden: Neil Harris

An interesting statistical analysis applies to deciding whether the runners are possible champions, or even real foxhunters. Southwestern had a grand career tally of 34 pointing runs and 18 wins. The other fourteen runners in total were only 14 successes from 46 (and of those, 4 wins and 12 races came not very recently in Ireland). Indeed four have never raced in a point and two others only in Irish maidens. In hunter chases Southwestern was two of twelve - although the wins were the John Corbet Cup in 2007 and this race in 2009. The rest were 19 from 87. Thus apart from the established pointer, their average record in points/hunter chases was 2.3 wins from 9.5 races. Certainly not the breakfast of champions, nor elevenses, nor tiffin. From the time that Johnny Kilawee caused disruption at the start, it was an eventful race. For starters it was strangely run, with a visibly slow pace still seeming too nippy for some, notably Eleazar and yet the finish unfolding as if the speed at been breakneck fast. Southwestern actually was quite slow away and last for a long time. He swept through the field easily, and without traffic problems, on the final lap and laid down a serious challenge on Herons Well, eventually exerting his superiority late in the race, as five other runners closed rapidly on the pair that had gone for home early. It was the performance of a horse that does not do explosive brilliance but will keep digging deep if there is any danger of someone trying to pass him. Herons Well looked a non-stayer in a shorter race at Fontwell earlier this year, so Josh Halley extracted a  surprisingly competitive performance from a horse that likes to be in front but had little chance of seeing out the trip if racing that prominently. He lost two places in the last few yards and was not far from losing more. As the pace up front faltered, Eleazar and Templer stayed on dourly into the places. The runner-up was an OK three mile hurdler, who had won a couple of dodgy hunter chases since returning from injury (assuming Dante's Storm was well below par at Uttoxeter), and he ended up with a good result despite being outpaced mid-race. Templer had been second in this last year and this season managed seventh at the Cheltenham Festival - which was quite a long way behind - but is usually inclined to accept a place as enough when races are as tough as this one, although his rider did seem a bit uncertain whether to race with the leaders or wait at the back, so alternated between them - which rarely pays dividends at any standard of race. He had beaten The General Lee narrowly last time, and given that horse's inconsistency, it was a minor surprise that the margin between them was not too dissimilar here. Despite having won five hunter chases, Bob Hall was eliminated from consideration because four of them were short of three miles, but his jumping was scrappy and he never got in close enough contention for that to become a factor.  One of the successes of the season is Surenaga, and he was close enough to have given Southwestern a minimum of a serious scare when he fell three out.

Guess which of these is the winner? Eleazar (3) is not too demoralised to stop him bouncing back, and Templer decides not to hog the spotlight from Southwestern

Race 7: Knight Frank Handicap Hurdle [2m 3f]

1: Speedy Directa & Ruby Valentine     3: Carhue Princess

Speedy Directa owned: Robert Aplin, trained: Milton Harris, ridden: Jimmy Derham

Ruby Valentine owned: The Winbledon Partnership, trained: Jim Wilson, ridden: Hadden Frost

An incident packed evening ended on the same note with a dead heat in the last race. Speedy Directa had stalked the two leaders on the far side and then quickened into the lead off the turn. That ought to have been game shot, but Jimmy Derham never looked totally happy and when it became clear that Ruby Valentine was finishing like a train, he found his mount less than 100% willing to share his determination to save the day. Even as they charged over the line, the naked eye felt Speedy Directa had just hung on, and the replay, whilst less conclusive, also appeared to favour that horse. The wait for a decision was sufficiently long that a dead heat was on the cards. Fans of coincidence will recall that Hadden Frost has also been involved in a dead heat for third here in barely a year - when is a hat trick going to be landed? Carhue Princess, who had made much of the running held on for the minor place from paddock pick Commit To Memory. The latter came into this with form of 6P0P-4 and an overall blank in sixteen races, but in a bottom tier event, that did not make him unbackable...

Plus Points

Lady Myfanwy (race 1): Back at her best and far from finished in points and hunter chases.

My Flora (race 4): Is staying hunter chasing next year and is a star in the making.

Dais Return (race 5): Hurdles over 3m 2f or more are thin on the ground, but he looks like he is one of the rare breed that is made for them.

Tarvini (race 5): Has his wins on good of faster ground and never on a sharp track, and the run of hefty defeats before this had come in the mud. This might not be his ideal course, third ought to have been his, and the poor form has been put behind him now that the ground is more suitable.

Eleazar (race 6): Not a bad show in defeat and the Summer National might be a worthwhile target to have in mind. 

Carhue Princess (race 7): Finished third for the third time in eight hurdle runs, but ran well enough to suggest she will find a day when things all come right for her.

Down Arrows

Hoo La Baloo (race 1): Failed to impress at Horseheath earlier in the season, and although he has won a race since, he looks like one to keep on opposing.

Takeroc (race 2): Just about got away with it this time, but is very tame under pressure.

Swordsman (race 5): Won a weak hunter chase last time but is a law unto himself and today we had the bad Swordsman (a bit of the Harvey Keitel's for fans of "Tthe Duellists") and although he does win occasionally, anyone backing him also needs to be prepared to endure a miserable few minutes watching their money disappear down the drain.

Herons Well (race 6): The Aintree Foxhunters' looked the ideal race for him, but he foolishly fell in that, and any well contested race over more than three miles is going to be a problem for him.

Johnny Kilawee (race 6): As he was given as withdrawn, this refusal to race will not show up in his form figures, but it should not be forgotten.

Super Directa (race 7): For a horse winning his fifth hurdle in 26 tries he looked an awkward customer. One to consider laying at short prices.