Plumpton 02/01/12

Going: Heavy (Soft places)

Race 1: At The Races Sky 415 Novice Hurdle [2m]

1: Balder Succes     2: Jodawes     3: Specialagent Alfie

Winner owned: Masterson Holdings Limited, trained: Alan King, ridden: Wayne Hutchinson

This was all part of Alan King’s new favourite ploy of running juvenile hurdlers against older horses. Perhaps he just has too many for the number of races available. In this case, an Auteuil win meant that Balder Succes already had a penalty to carry, so the weight-for-age allowance helped keep the overall weight carried down to something a bit more managaeable. He was less impressive than Grumeti at Taunton on Friday, and against a lower standard of opponent, but in tough conditions, he exerted his dominance readily enough after the final flight. The mud was far worse than Jodawes had come across in two earlier hurdle runs, and his performance did not drop off because of it, perhaps Balder Succes will prove it to be a little bit better. He is still just short of winning anything bar a muppet race. With thirty lengths plus defeats in a bumper and a hurdle, Specialagent Alfie was far, far better than shown before. The ground or natural progression?

The field for the first launch a surprise attack on a dozy photographer. Chilworth Lass (13) leads the charge, loyally followed by the heads (left to right) of Jodawes, Good Buy Dubai, Specialagent Alfie, Balder Succes, Time Book, Excelsior Academy and My Sister.

Race 2: At The Races Virgin 534 Novice Chase [2m 1f]

1: Kumbeshwar     2: Criqtonic

Winner owned: The McNeill Family & Nigel Bunter, trained: Alan King, ridden: Wayne Hutchinson

Only three lined up and the outsider was stil a 33/1 shot. It looked as if Over The Page’s target was to complete for third place money, but that was not a given as he had refused in two of his last five. Make that three from six now. Kumbeshwar, impressive at Hereford before being duffed up at Ascot by Zaynar, controlled the race from the front and won largely untroubled.  Being a new recruit from France , Criqtonic was an unknown quantity, and after a short lived effort to challenge on the railway turn, he was eased down considerably. Something of a no contest overall. This was one of the Cheltenham bonus races, but Kumbeshwar so far looks like he is not going to be quite good enough to win a championship race, but will be vulnerable to less exposed (i.e. not trying ultra hard) runners in the handicaps.

Race 3: EBF At The Races New Predictor Novice Hurdle [2m 5f]

1: Aikideau      2: Kings Lodge     3: Holywell

Winnerowned: The Stewart Family, trained: Richard Rowe, ridden: Leighton Aspell

It was beginning to look as if Aikideau would never replicate his excellent run in the Triumph Hurdle to a degree which would translate into a win, and on the railway bend for the last time, he seemed set for yet another defeat. However, he was handling the testing conditions and race distance better than Kings Lodge (all runs on good or good to soft, and seemingly better at two miles). Durability prevailed and Kings Lodge stopped to nothing in the home straight. Under the circumstances, Kings Lodge’s surrender can be forgiven, which means that the handicapper will be unlikely to drop him from his rating of 125, whereas Aikideau may edge back up two or three, having been given some relief after recent losses. There was support at long prices for Ballypatrick, an ex-Irish pointer who had pulled up at Newbury on an inauspicious hurdles debut. He ran well up to a degree, but could not even hold third against another import from the hunting field, Holywell. This one had been third on debut, and then won his next, but as only two of thirteen finished, the merit was hard to fathom. This was a fair enough start.

Taking a safer position away from the rail gets a less dramatic picture of Aikideau crossing the line

Race 4: Follow At The Races On twitter Handicap Hurdle [2m 5f]

1: Oscar Charlie     2: Terra Bleu     3: Snow Patrol

Winner owned: The Oscar Charlie Racing Partnership, trained: Paul Henderson, ridden: Tom O’Brien

The early pace in this was fast for the conditions, and most of the runners paid the penalty sooner rather than later, plenty being ridden along with still a circuit to race. At the business end, two of them forged clear, and although the margin was only a head, it always seemed that Oscar Charlie (second in a chase last time) was doing enough to hold Terra Bleu – an error at the last made things tighter than they needed to be – and it was slightly surprising that the official distance was so close. Due to the slow struggle most of the runners made to get home up the straight, the official time based distances for those coming in adrift were further than the physical “to the naked eye” gaps between horses.

Oscar Charlie retains the lead over Terra Bleu, even when merely off to unsaddle

Race 5: At The Races Sussex National Handicap Chase [3m 5f]

1: Double Dizzy     2: Justabout     3: Mid Div And Creep

Winner owned: Martyn Forrester, trained: Bob Buckler, ridden: Andrew Glassonbury

The sponsors were promoting this as a stepping stone to the Grand National, but with it being a 0-130 race, the recent BHA policy on framing the weights means that none of today’s runners would have much of a chance of making the final forty for the big one, despite some being eminently suitable candidates – more so than the array of guaranteed non-stayers that certain yards consistently field in it. However, this renewal was notable mainly for the sort of incidents that should be enough to dissuade connections from going anywhere near Aintree. At the first fence Zimbabwe fell, bringing down Diamond Brook, badly hampering Mid Div And Creep, and doing Near The Water no favours either. The favourite, up and coming Strongbows Legend, departed at the tenth, just failing by a whisker to take out Double Dizzy in the process. Next to go was the usually reliable Rate Of Knots at fence thirteen, and just as Near The Water had sneaked back into contention, he fell at the sixteenth, possibly distracted by an error from Justabout in front of him (which looked worse to the naked eye than on the television replay). After making the running, Evella quickly tailed off on the final lap, and pulled up, leaving only three to finish, although given the way the race went, nothing was certain until they had all crossed the line. With an SP of 8/1, Double Dizzy was a bit underestimated, as he had been running really well in a cross-country race at Cheltenham last time, only to be carried out by others taking the wrong course. Retracing his steps and completing led to an unrepresentatively heavy margin of defeat. This was a nice consolation for earlier mishaps, although if Strongbows Legend has legs two inches longer it would have been another tale of woe.

Double Dizzy celebrates 100 accident free metres. The last hundred of the race

Race 6: Visit At The Races On Facebook Handicap Chase [2m 4f]

1: Time To Think     2: Hunt Ball     3: Goring Two

Winner owned: Mrs Fay Hewett, trained: Seamus Mullins, ridden: Andrew Thornton

There was some very odd betting in this, with several horses appearing to be overpriced, and even the two that were too short did not jump out as horrendously so. The race itself concerned only three horses from the top of the back straight, and of those, Goring Two, recently a winner for the first time, was first to crack. After that it was a head to head between two horses that had been first and second on good at Folkestone in the same race in December. Hunt Ball had been a comfy winner, but was seventeen pounds worse off in comparison here, and in the end that beat him, with Time To Think hanging on by ¾ length. As Hunt Ball had gone up 33 pounds in the handicap for his three wins, this was a pretty heroic effort in defeat. Meanwhile, the softer ground was in Time To Think’s favour and the previous loss had been his chase debut. You may expect him to have learned from it, but he looked today like a horse that would rather go right-handed, which added up to a lack of conspicuous improvement – other than the result.

Race 7: Attheraces.com Exclusive Hugh Taylor Tipping Handicap Hurdle [2m]

1: Action Impact     2: Wheres Johnny     3: Forest Rhythm

Winner owned: T Bowley, trained: Gary Moore, ridden: Jamie Moore

Yet another strange race. Everyone had a go at being in front and failed to stay there, until Action Impact got there last of all, so had to remain there, as there was no horse left to take a turn. This was a massive bounce back from a dodgy effort at Leicester last week, but he now has two hurdle wins, both two milers at Plumpton on heavy ground. Wheres Johnny continued his effort to reinvent himself as a two mile hurdler, and considering that this was his first race since March, it was not bad performance at all – he had the winner worried until the second from home. With a win in his last race, Forest Rhythm was at least in reasonable form, but that soft ground success was out of character, and dropping to two miles was uncertain to suit. Thus the laboured effort to nab third was only to be expected.

Plus Points

Specialagent Alfie (race 1): With it being only his third sight of a racecourse, the improved effort could become the norm.

Excelsior Academy (race 1): Had not run since July 2010, when rated 82 on the flat. He had won up to 1m 6f then, but not on ground this bad, which would be tough to make a comeback on under any circumstances. A never threatening fourth was a fair effort for his hurdling debut.

La Belle Au Bois (race 1): Won a bad five runner bumper on her debut and has suffered mixed fortunes since. In her first hurdle she slipped up and in the next posted a respectable midfield effort. Today she took on the Sheena West runner in a suicidal duel for the lead, and dropped out after a blunder at halfway. Potential handicap mark remains intact.

Aikideau (race 3): Quite conceivably has found his niche as a stayer in bottomless going.

Holywell (race 3): Managed a respectable third in tough conditions, although he was not given as easy time of things as some Jonjo O’Neill debutants. There seems to be something to work with.

Homer Run (race 4): Has been showing a liking for very muddy conditions at a time when his yard has not been in tip-top form, but took a backward step today under a very cautious ride from his relatively inexperienced jockey. The gradual process of closing down on a win, being followed in a style akin to herding cats, can get back on track next time.

Justabout (race 5): Is back down on a winning rating, but was beaten here by the ground, which he would prefer to have included the word “good” in the description. He will throw in some let downs, and the mix and match of headgear is ominous, but he is probably not done with winning entirely.

Mid Div And Creep (race 5): Runner-up in the festival Foxhunters and winner of a four mile hunter chase at Cheltenham after, she excels in points at the vast galloping expanse of Horseheath. Even if she had not been beaten up at the first, the course and going may have stopped her anyway. Expect better in different circumstances.

Action Impact (race 7): If it is two miles at Plumpton, and barely raceable, ignore him at your peril.

Down Arrows

Paul Nicholls (race 2): According to the Racing Post five year stats, his record in chases at Plumpton is played 13, won 1, which is exceptionally poor by his standards. Only Ayr, Ludlow and Huntingdon are in a similar bracket.

Criqtonic (race 2): Did not look anything special and is worth taking on against less talented oppo than Kumbeshwar.

Terra Bleu (race 4): Has run three brave races in going 132, but they have come in the space of a week and the last two have been quite tough going. That could take a toll if making another quick reappearance.

Snow Patrol (race 4): Was fairly prominent in the betting for this, despite only having once won in his career and with the five year commemoration of that event due next month. It seems unlikely that a year’s worth of steady performances is suddenly going to translate to triumph and glory.

Lightening Fire (race 4): Three career wins include one at Plumpton on soft, but he has been in a foul mood recently and made it clear before and during the race that he had no interest in being competitive.

Near The Water (race 5): Was not out of contention when he fell, but has previously not convinced as even a three miler, so it would be dangerous to make too many optimistic assumptions about what may have happened in the last five furlongs.

Diamond Brook (race 5): Having gone no more than 100 metres before departing, this race is a write-off, but with an SP of 3/1, he was priced based on some stamina assumptions that are a bit of a reach from the available evidence. 

Watergate (race 6): Another that had been second to Hunt Ball recently and weighted to turn the result around, his jumping in chases has been suspect (once was in front when a last fence faller) and perhaps this course is also the wrong way round for him. His fencing was much more careful this time, but very much to the detriment of keeping tabs on the leaders.

Pensnett Bay (race 6): A smashing chasing designed horse, he had won on Boxing Day at Towcester in the first time cheekpieces, but the progress was arrested this time by a series of errors, which knocked him down amongst the also rans.

Drawn Free (race 7): Appeared to win here before Christmas with plenty in hand, and with his riders’ claim included, competed today from a feather weight of 9 stone 7 pounds. However, he went from cruising in front to beaten in a flick of a pencil, and then took a very tired fall at the last. Even if the accident does not get to him, the manner of surrender was a cause for concern, as conditions were soft when he won, limiting the degree to which the ground can be an excuse.

UK-Jumping

Tenzing (race): Was added to the list with the proviso of stopping at a win, due to apparently limited ability. Since gaining the key triumph, he had not completed the course in two races, so eighth here was a step forward, even though it seemed that he may as well have pulled up.